Frontier AI Capability Progress Over Time

Tracks evidence about how quickly and consistently frontier AI capabilities are changing over time, including acceleration, slowdowns, plateaus, and breaks in long-run trends.

Entries in VyDex:: 1
Last Activity:: 2026-08-24
Default Order:: Latest Updates

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AI CapabilitiesUpdated 24 Aug 2026
Epoch estimates frontier AI benchmark progress nearly doubled in pace around April 2024
Epoch AI’s December 2025 retrospective estimated that the frontier of its composite Epoch Capabilities Index improved 1.85 times faster after a best-fit breakpoint on 8 April 2024: 8.337 ECI points per year before the breakpoint and 15.459 afterward.
Claim: SupportedEvidence: Strong
Topic Trail: Frontier AI Capability Progress Over Time Read Entry

Entries in This Trail

Epoch estimates frontier AI benchmark progress nearly doubled in pace around April 2024